What’s driving you crazy?

FORT WORTH, TEXAS –Well, the sun is out. The temperature this morning is crisp (6°/43°), but not prohibitively cold, and the skies are clear across the state. All this means a likely record turnout in a primary election (probably will beat the general election turnout in some years).

What does it mean? Polls show things are very, very tight. The latest is from Zogby.

On the strength of some strong campaigning in Ohio and Texas, Democrat Hillary Clinton of New York has retaken a narrow lead over rival Barack Obama of Illinois in Texas and has dead-locked the race in Ohio, a new Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle survey by Zogby International shows.

This has led one of my friends who is a Barack Obama cheerleader to concede that the senator from Illinois may not give Hillary Clinton the coup de grâce on which the Obamadillos™ were counting (though I question how much mercy might be behind that death blow).

“I unfortunately have to tell you guys that I THINK this will be razor thin,” she said (she often talks in capital letters). “He may win Texas and Vermont, and she will win Ohio and Rhode Island.

“She said last night on Jon Stewart (The Daily Show on Comedy Central - ed.) if its close like it is now she has to stay in for the other big states and said she’d stay in for Pennsylvania (188 delegates-ed), and thats April 22nd.
“So NOTHING will be resolved today!”

How could Sen. Clinton pull off a last-minute touchdown? It’s easier to explain than why someone who is not a sports fan is using a football metaphor. One reason is that Clinton has really put the push on the last few weeks. She and her supporters know it is a do or die situation, and they may get by with a little help from their enemies.

Texas does not require folks to register by party affiliation. So, in the Lone Star State, and apparently the Buckeye State, folks get to pick their races. Yep, that means part of a Sen. Clinton victory could Clinton haters setting up what they believe will be a canned hunt for the GOP in November.

Plus, truth be told, the anti-war cannot see straight when it comes to Sen. Clinton. She is the devil to them, plain and simple, as she will not apologize for her vote to authorize the invasion of Iraq. Possibly the only thing these moderate to liberal Democrats might have in common with the right to far-right Republican Clinton haters. Vilification is such a bonding thing.

If my friend’s prediction holds true*, nothing will be resolved only after a long, long wait. Here’s why. Turnout has been phenomenal in Texas.

Texas Secretary of State Phil Wilson is predicting a record turnout based on the early voting figures.

“The number of voters participating in the Texas primaries is greater than anything we have seen before,” Wilson said in a recent press release. “If the voting trends continue through Election Day, Texas will set a record for turnout in a primary election with 3.3 million Texans casting a ballot.”

That is, the secretary of state’s office (would that be “SOS” in the new “abbreviaspeak?”) says that is 26% of registered voters in Texas [Opinion - still a sorry percentage for a nation founded on and supposedly exporting democracy, in my humble opinion.]

How big is it? Well, again according to the secretary of state, close to 900,000 voters cast ballots for Democrats in early voting in Texas’ ten largest counties. The office says that is 11.39% of the registered voters in those counties. More than 300,000 cast votes in the Republican primaries in the same counties, for a total of 3.88% of the registered voters. That’s 1.2 million ballots cast before polls opened this morning.

That’s not a shabby turnout for Republicans in a race that is all but decided. Whether Gov. Mike Huckabee can pull out a big win in Texas over Sen. John McCain is in doubt. Huckabee is counting on an evangelical and conservative landslide. McCain has all the big endorsements, including the controversial, millionaire preacher John Hagee (who brought Huckabee, an ordained minister, to preach at Hagee’s church and then endorsed McCain).

Expect delays. There will be long lines, most polling places are short staffed and new voting procedures are being introduced. In Texas, each county picks its own balloting system.

Texas’ precinct conventions, which chose about one third of the promised delegates, only open after the polls close. It easily could be an hour or so after polls are scheduled to shut down before everyone is through voting. If you are in line when the polls close, you get to vote, no matter how long the line is.

Hunker down and get comfy. It looks like a long night.

[Opinion: Having said that, watch it be an early blowout!]

* I recently opined that Sen. Clinton might not be out yet.