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Any chance California goes from blue to red?

Posted on | 28 October 2008 | 1 Comment

PLEASE NOTE UPDATE BELOW:

Here’s some interesting speculation from the blogosphere of California.

Things often are not what they seem, and complacency is a killer.

The polls have shown California to be Obama country for months. And the pundits are still predicting a sea of blue. But there has been a lot of chatter on the political blogs about an interesting finding on early voting in the state.

According to RedState.com, 104,000 Republicans have voted early or by mail-in ballot, compared with 105,000 Democrats.

The polls showed Barack Obama with an 18-point lead in California just a few days ago. The results thus far are the complete opposite. … With nearly 210,000 people having voted, the Democrats have only a 1,000 vote advantage! If we take the liberty of assuming that all Republicans will vote for John McCain and all Democrats will vote for Obama, then the race is incredibly close.

At the Atlantic, Marc Ambinger offers this analysis: “Early voting is very popular in California, and Republicans tend to vote at higher rates than Democrats. More conservative areas of the state tend to vote early; Los Angeles County traditionally has the lowest early-voting rate. Don’t know if the above statistics are correct, but if they are, they’re not usual for that state.”

– Shelby Grad

Source: latimesblogs.latimes.com

The Mercury News reports the latest Field Poll of California voters shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by 32 points (Obama 55 – McCain 33)

Of INTEREST: If the poll accurately reflects the outcome on Election Day, it would be the most lopsided presidential election in California since Democrat Franklin Roosevelt beat Republican Alfred Landon by 35 percentage points in 1936. The results are similar to a Public Policy Institute of California Poll released last week, which had Obama leading McCain by 23 points.

Source:  The Mercury News

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Comments

One Response to “Any chance California goes from blue to red?”

  1. Michael
    October 29th, 2008 @ 23:58

    I voted mail-in ballot
    I am a conservative christian Republican
    McCain/Palin
    I see and pray for a California Red state.

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